Thursday, October 1, 2009

Luck and Skill

So I finally got around to submitting my first post.

In this Blog I hope to shed light on some principles I use to be semi successful at poker.

That is being successful but not necessarily beating Phil Ivey.

My perspective is from playing no limit Texas Holdem in about 200 live tournaments and a couple of hundred hours of online play predominantly in low limit cash games.

This blog will be aimed at the intermediate player.

Someone who knows how the game is played but might not understand a whole lot about being successful.

I hope to include some game theory, some psychology, some new ideas.

If you have burning questions you want answered I may be able to help.

Now onto Luck. Anyone who says that poker is all luck or all skill hasn't played enough poker. Either that or they have a limited view of the game. There is (for me) about 70% luck 30% skill. Skill can get you out of bad situations luck can do both. It would be a very boring game without an element of luck.

In the movie Rounders Matt Damon's character says It isn't luck that the world series main event final table is made up of the same players every year.

The truth is that the world series final table IS made of different people every year, precisely because of luck.

There are anomalies such as Dan Harrington (which I have had the pleasure of meeting) chewing through massive fields to make the World Series Final table twice, but this is only because of large amounts of luck coupled with large amounts of skill. I have seen many situations when the worst hand has won, it is a necessary evil.

There will be times when the correct decision (using skill) is to go broke and making a different decision while useful in that hand would be incorrect in 9 out of ten hands.

The sooner you concede that luck forms a large part of poker the better.

The goal is to reduce the luck of other players by using skill. For example raising when there is a possible flush draw so that other players don't get lucky (cheaply).

The other goal is use your skill to put yourself in situations to get lucky.

Be aware, that this does not mean chasing most draws in order to hit. This is devoid of skill and easy pickings for most players.

If this is all gibberish to you ask questions and I will clarify.

Good Luck!

Originally posted by: *PKR ADK*

Low Pocket Pairs

I consider low pocket pairs as anything under pocket tens.

Its really quite simple, only play pocket pairs when it is advantageous to do so.

A good strategy is to call when there is no raise or minimum raise when it does not cost you too much, say when it is 10% of your stack or less, anything over is simply not worth the risk.

So once you've called, you are hoping to do one of three things,
  1. Flop trips (three of a kind, which happens once in every 8 hands) or
  2. Have the flop be under your pair.
  3. Have the flop be trips meaning that you have a full house.
In all cases there is a good chance that you will win the hand and you have not outlayed very much to do so. One thing to watch for however, is that in case 3 beware that others may have a higher pocket pair (leaving you next to dead) or high cards (that might hit). In all three cases people will rarely think that you have what you have, which can be profitable.

If any of the three cases above occur you should raise about a pot size raise. As people will not usually put you on these hands you can profit from loose calls from high cards thinking you are bluffing.

If one of those three scenarios does not happen on the flop, fold to any raise. Think of it as a lottery ticket, small outlay for big returns. If you don't win the lottery, you don't go risking lots of money next week try to recoup you losses, do you?

Never raise with low pockets unless you are bluffing, because it is really a bluff, I have seen too many people massively over value their pairs and when the flop comes all higher cards they continue to bluff, it is simply to risky to do. At least bluff with over cards, not under pairs.

In the words of 'The Professor' Howard Lederer "Flop em Dead"

Originally posted by: *PKR ADK*

Pre Flop Raising with High Pockets

Raising, well everyone does it, but 'timing' is the most important part of raising, that and the amount you raise.

One of my golden rules is "raise when you have something to lose", that is, you have the best hand and not raising would allow someone else to get the best hand. This does not apply to low pairs, read the related post for playing low pocket pairs.

If you have JJ QQ KK or AA you must raise. The amount you raise is usually a sliding scale, Jacks should have the biggest bet whereas Aces need a signifigant raise, this is because you need to try to ensure that you have the best hand on the flop with fewer callers, with aces this isn't such a problem.

With many loose players I may go all in with AA, KK or QQ wanting callers. If you have JJ or QQ and you are pushed all in by very tight players (before you can raise) consider folding. I think that one of the most important parts of playing good poker is knowing when you are beat and having the guts to fold good cards that have a high likelyhood of being beat either pre flop or on the flop.

The amount you raise should be directly dictated by whether or not you want callers. You should get a sense for the correct amount to retain or lose players (through calling or folding) and use these amounts in you raise.

I see many players raising too little with aces or kings, virtually nobody puts you on these hands (coming only one in 221 hands) so you may as well keep people guessing about what you have. Many people raise large amounts with AJ or similar hands, so they may think that you have a drawing hand when you are actually sitting on gold.

Once thing I find profitable is if somebody raises a large amount that reduces the amount of callers, when you have AA or KK, simply call and allow the player to be the aggressor.

Essentially when I raise I am being the aggressor because nobody else has or the amount they have raised isn't enough to ensure the number of players I want to see the flop. That is, a few loose players when I have aces and 0 or 1 caller when I have JJ.

One of the worst feelings in poker is having high pockets (KK, QQ or JJ) lots of callers and the flop comes an ace. You need to architect a situation where this does not happen (often).

One thing you would have noticed if you have read my other post on pocket pairs is that I haven't mentioned pocket tens. Since I think you shouldn't raise with pocket nines or below pocket tens is in limbo.

I find pocket tens an uneasy hand that waivers between being a help and a hinderance.

50% of the time you should raise with tens however you need to properly read your situation and be comfortable that the raise amount will limit callers to one or two callers. With 10s you should be happy with no callers. If any picture card hits the flop you need to correctly read your opponent for whether they hit and bet or check accordingly.

View high pockets as an opportunity and not a guarantee and you should go well.

Originally posted by: *PKR ADK*

Effective Play Against Aggression

This post is about using the aggression of others to your advantage.

One regular situation when playing poker is that you have aggressors and you have meek players. These aggressors seek to steal blinds and incrementally build their stack using cards that most players wouldn't hesitate to fold.

The thing with playing aggressive players is only call with premium hands and try not to get bullied when you have these types of hands. By premium cards I mean high pockets and an Ace and a picture card.

One great thing with these players is that you normally always get action.

If you tighten your starting hands and simply call when you these players act you can usually trap them and use their aggression against them.

In many instances you could lose 2 or 3 blinds to an aggressor and double up easily when you hit a hand.

Be subordinate to aggressive players and it is much easier to win a hand. I was once playing heads up in a live tournament against a hyper aggressive player that went all in every hand. I was first to act looked down at AA, I simply called and he put me all in. Great result. The player then berated me for only calling (instead of raising), showed Q6 and got lucky hitting a full house knocking me out of the tournament, however if I had of raised pre flop he would have been suspicious and might of folded.

One important part to playing great cards against aggressors is playing them the same as any hands.

People are creatures are habit and they become weary if you raise when you have never raised before (you may want that when bluffing). If you know for sure that there is an aggressive player that will raise and thin the field for you, simply call and let them knock themselves out.

There are situations however, where you are short stacked and there is a player that will put you all in regularly, logic will tell you that you cannot simply call and you need to tighten you starting hand requirements further.

Most players I know get frustrated with raisers, I like playing against these players mainly because they are consistent, regardless of their cards and when you win, you win big.

You do however lose cheap flops so you need to remove marginal cards from you game. The other concern is that you can't put them on good cards.

If you are playing these consistent raisers and you have a decent stack and want them to stop, reraise them with nothing occasionally. If you beat them show the bluff, and they will usually stop, if they don't would will usually put them on tilt.

One thing I have also found with raisers that if they are raised or reraised they will nearly always call through pride. If you try to tango with the raiser type be prepared to factor in raises at all stages of the hand. It seems as though these players will call preflop with anything but when their raise doesn't work they will rarely reraise on the flop (unless they have something) it seems as though they have a set play and if that doesn't work they call, see the flop and then fold if they don't hit.

Most of the time I don't try to slow down raisers at all, I simply sit and wait for a great hand and double up. The good thing about these players is that when the whole table is gunning for one player and the table is less aware of the hand or any other players if the aggressor folds. It is like a sporting team playing without there captain, they don't know what to do.

The most important thing about aggressors is identifying the type of aggressor, what effect they have on the table and adjusting your play accordingly.

For example there is guy I play against regularly and he will be all in with any two cards virtually every hand. Inevitably (if he doesn't get knocked out) he overpowers the stacks of the whole table and people are scared to play. If you call, your all in. If the aggressor does his standard raise and a solid player calls you need to be aware that he probably has a great hand. In a normal situation where you would call the raiser you need to reevaluate your hand because you not just against the raiser but a solid player with a hand he is happy to go all in with.

I have seen a couple of times where the people forget there are other people in the hand thinking the same thing you are, and call with marginal hands which are ok against one other player but not multiple players.

Aggressors try to put fear into a table and sometimes if they are lucky, they can force loose players to play good cards or die trying.

"Check to the Raiser"

Originally posted by: *PKR ADK*

Couple of Possiblities

In this post I will look at texture of the board and how it affects your hand.

Picture this, you look down at AcAh. you raise and four players see the flop.

The flop comes As Ks Qd. How do you feel.

Well you may feel great, you have just flopped trip Aces.

The problem is, there is many possibilities that this flop brings for other players.
  1. They have made a straight.
  2. They have a flush draw.
  3. They have a straight draw.
It is highly likely that if you made a significant raise pre flop, at least one player has something or can draw something that will beat you.

I have been in this position many times. Flopping trip aces with a straight draw is bad enough without adding other possibilities such as flush draws.

Most times when I have seen this type flop to the river I lose to a straight or a flush. The difference is I limit my losses by not going all in if I can avoid it. This doesn't mean being soft in raising but being somewaht conservative relative to my stack.

In this scenario depending on your opponents you need to play it by ear, most likely raising if it hasn't been raised by a solid player. If it is raised don't be afraid to fold as you probably don't have the best of it.

Board texture is down to four main factors.
  1. Flush draws (board containing two of a suit) or flush possibilities (three of a suit)
  2. Connected Straight draws/possibilities (two or three connected cards)
  3. Gutshot Straight draws/possibilities (two or three semi connected cards)
  4. Full house possibilities (where there is a pair on the board)
I have been on tables where you have players with straights, flushes and full houses, all in the one hand (all thinking they had the best hand).

One thing to be aware of is the Gutshot straight draws, they aren't apparent to most players and you normally can't put people on a gutshot straight draw nor should you unless a solid player is particularly aggressive.

Always be aware of board texture and bet accordingly, if you have a straight and there is a possible flush draw, raise. When players are trying to trap with 'made' hands such as straights they are playing with fire. You need to make players gamble to hit their drawing hands.

*Amazingly while writing this post and playing a cash game online, I won a very large hand to a low straight and a high straight when I had the flush.

In this hand, the player who flopped a straight, raised all in on the turn as they should have done on the flop as there was a flush draw (which I would have folded). Instead I 'gambled' on the river as I had the straight draw (on the turn) as well as the flush draw and was pot invested.

The moral for today is always be aware of what other players may have and don't go blind to your hand.

Originally posted by: *PKR ADK*

Silence is the Key

A few key points to talking while playing poker.
  • Don't tell people what you had, unless there is a reason to do so.
Information is power and people ask so they know what cards you play and how you act in different situations.

You may however want to put people off how you play. You are tight and you bluff one hand and you tell them that you bluffed or you had strong cards when you normally play loosely.

Be aware that experienced player will sometimes lie (which i don't believe in) and use this strategy to disguise their play through deceit.

Newer players will usually just tell the truth which is a good insight to how they play, this is why people ask.

When people ask what I had, I just say two cards. If you don't respond, people think you are rude which can be a problem when playing live, particularly against shady characters.
  • Don't talk loudly while somebody is making is making a difficult decision.
It is a matter of respect, you would hope that people would respect you enough to give you some time to think. You can talk, just keep it to a minimum and not about the players or the hand.

  • Don't under any circumstances reveal you hand during the hand.

I don't mean showing your hand, I mean talking or making any gesture that shows what you had after folding.

The most popular example of this that I see is when they would have hit two pair or three of a kind and they snarl or groan. Players need to understand that after they have folded they have no right to be any part of the hand.

By doing so, (even rolling their eyes) a hand can be completely compromised, bluffers rely on doubt for their ability to win.

The rule is 'act like you would, if you were still in the hand'.

In an extreme example of this, I have won a tournament because somebody sighed. The flop came two kings and a loose player went all in, and the player to my left sighed as though he folded a king.

Normally I would have folded as I didn't have a particularly strong hand, in this case however, I was sure that the raiser did not have the king and I took the chip lead after winning that hand. Ironically I went heads up against and beat 'the sigher'. It is simply bad etiquette.

"Be an enigma!"

Originally posted by: *PKR ADK*

Agressive Play

Many players are aggressive but are not successful.

In this post I will cover the keys to making the best use of aggressive play.

Successful aggression is really based on 3 things.

1.Insurance: Making people fold when you have the best cards at that point in the hand. Say you have JJ and the flop comes A of hearts J of hearts and 9 of spades. There is a possible flush draw and a possible straight draw. What you have to do is use your aggression to stop the hand at that point or make it prohibitively expensive for someone to play a draw.

The same can be said for high pockets cards like AA KK QQ JJ you need to make a significant raise pre flop (say 6 times the blinds so that you "insure" that people make the wrong decision in calling.

2. Making your good cards count when you have the best hand. There is nothing worse than when a new player has a monster hand checking or calling when they should bet. If you have the best cards make it expensive to see your winning hand. It is a science of how much you should bet, but it should not be cheap (like 1-2 times the blinds).

3.Correctly reading the situation. If you are last to act (say the dealer) and there are two limpers (people who just call) to the flop and you think they haven't hit, place a bet, ensure that your aggression is within limits and usually double blinds to pot size.

Correctly reading the situation comes from reading the board for draws and knowing the player that are still in the hand and what they could have and how they play.

The problem with TV poker is that they don't show the hundreds of hands in which Phil Ivey folded, they only show the interesting hands. What pros do for the most part is highly calculated and if you are only just starting out in poker, only bluff when there is a very high chance that you will win.

Also only try to bluff small numbers of people don't try to bluff 4 people, it just won't won't work as "someone has something".

Aggression has many facets these are only a few.

Originally posted by: *PKR ADK*